Record Maize Harvest, El Niño Ahead: How to Plan the 2026/27 Season

South African grain farmers are heading into the 2026/27 planting season with two very different stories in front of them. Behind them is a record maize harvest. Ahead of them is what the South African Weather Service (SAWS) warns could be an exceptionally strong El Niño.

Here is where things stand, and what you can do now to protect your margins, whatever the rain does.

A record 2026 maize crop

The Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) has steadily raised its forecast for the 2026 commercial maize crop. Its latest estimate is about 17.5 million tonnes, a record and nearly 5% more than in 2025:

• White maize: about 9.6 million tonnes, at an expected 5.74 t/ha
• Yellow maize: about 7.9 million tonnes, at an expected 7.54 t/ha
• Average yield: about 6.43 t/ha
• The Free State, Mpumalanga and North West are expected to produce about 82% of the crop

Winter crops are a different story. The 2026 wheat crop is expected to be the smallest in about eight years, which is a reminder that a good year for one crop doesn't mean a good year for every farm.

The El Niño warning for 2026/27

SAWS confirmed in September 2026 that El Niño is strong and likely to intensify, with a peak expected in late 2026 or early 2027. Its seasonal forecasts point to:

• Below-normal rainfall over most of the country from October to December 2026, and a similar pattern from November 2026 to January 2027
• Above-normal temperatures through the summer

The Agricultural Research Council expects reduced grazing and lower summer grain yields, and advises "a conservative management strategy" during El Niño summers.

But El Niño shifts the odds rather than deciding the outcome. The very strong El Niño of 1997/98 brought near-normal rain to parts of the summer rainfall region. If you want to understand the science, read our explainer on what El Niño is and how it works.

Good prices, rising costs

High grain prices have been a windfall for many grain and oilseed producers, but rising input costs threaten to eat into those profits. At NAMPO Cape in September, Bredasdorp Park chairperson Henk Aggenbach summed up the pressure: "Production costs remain high, while weaker commodity prices continue to place producers under pressure."

In a season that may be dry, margins will depend less on the price you get and more on what it costs you to produce each tonne.

Five ways to protect your margins this season

1. Plan your planting with the forecast, not against it

Follow SAWS's seasonal and short-range forecasts, and wait for adequate soil moisture before you plant. Reassess cultivar choices and planting windows. Shorter-season or more drought-tolerant options may make sense this year.

2. Conserve every millimetre of soil moisture

Minimum tillage, residue cover and good weed control all help keep water in the soil. Fewer passes over the land also mean less diesel and less wear on your machines.

3. Know your diesel cost per hectare

Diesel is one of the biggest controllable costs on a farm. Consider tracking it with a fuel management system to identify where each litre is used.

4. Claim every litre of your diesel refund

Since 1 April 2026 you can claim on 100% of your eligible diesel. Make sure you have registered on SARS's new diesel refund system, that your suppliers have registered too, and that your logbook can prove every litre.

5. Manage grazing and water conservatively

If you run livestock, adjust stocking rates to realistic veld carrying capacity, plan fodder reserves early, and check boreholes, pumps and water troughs now rather than in January.

The bottom line

Authorities say farming conditions going into this summer are more favourable than they were before the 2015/16 drought, and a record harvest has put many farmers on a stronger footing. The farms that come through an El Niño summer best are usually the ones that know their numbers: what each machine costs, where every litre of diesel goes, and which costs can still be cut.

AgriTrekker helps you track diesel and maintenance per machine from your phone. Plans start from R149 per month, and your first month is free.

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Frequently asked questions

How big is South Africa's 2026 maize crop? The Crop Estimates Committee's latest estimate is about 17.5 million tonnes, a record crop and nearly 5% more than in 2025.

Will El Niño cause a drought in 2026/27? SAWS forecasts below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures over much of South Africa for the 2026/27 summer, but El Niño increases the risk of drought rather than guaranteeing it.

How can farmers prepare for El Niño? Conserve soil moisture, reassess planting windows and cultivars, track input costs closely, adjust grazing and stocking rates, and secure water supplies early.

How can I cut diesel costs on my farm? Track diesel per machine and per activity, investigate unusual consumption, reduce unnecessary passes over the land, keep machines well serviced, and claim the full diesel refund on eligible litres.